Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s economic outlook from Stable to Positive, citing sustained economic reforms, rising foreign exchange reserves, easing inflationary pressures and improved prospects for economic growth.
The international credit rating agency, however, affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’, indicating that while the country’s credit profile is improving, significant economic and fiscal challenges remain.
The Federal Government, in a statement issued on Saturday by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Prof. Taiwo Oyedele, described the decision as further validation of the administration’s economic reform programme.
Fitch said the positive outlook reflected its growing confidence that the government would sustain reforms aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s policy framework and improving macroeconomic stability.
According to the agency, Nigeria’s increased exchange rate flexibility, declining inflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves were among the major factors behind the improved assessment.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
The increase was attributed to the formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, higher export earnings and remittances.
Fitch noted that improvements in the quality of the country’s reserves had strengthened its capacity to withstand external shocks, while projecting a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026.
On economic growth, the agency forecast that Nigeria’s real GDP would expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with four per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028.
The projected expansion is expected to be driven largely by non-oil economic activities.
The rating agency also noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production had met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
It added that increased domestic refining capacity was helping to reduce imports of refined petroleum products and the associated demand for foreign exchange.
Inflation is also expected to moderate, with Fitch projecting average inflation of 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On public finances, the agency expressed optimism that ongoing tax reforms would improve non-oil revenue mobilisation and strengthen government finances.
It projected that general government debt would average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the median of 56 per cent for countries with similar ‘B’ ratings.
Fitch also acknowledged the depth of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent, comfortably exceeding regulatory minimum requirements.
The latest assessment comes amid a series of favourable developments in Nigeria’s international financial standing.
Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ in May 2026, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive in August.
Separately, FTSE Russell restored Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026.
The Finance Ministry said the developments reflected growing confidence in the direction of Nigeria’s economic reforms.
It attributed the improved outlook to difficult but necessary policy decisions under President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, exchange rate unification and the introduction of landmark tax reforms.
The government said its medium-term ambition was to put Nigeria firmly on the path towards investment-grade credit status, arguing that the ultimate objective was not merely to improve international ratings but to reduce the cost of capital, attract private investment and create jobs.
However, the ministry acknowledged that significant challenges remained, particularly elevated inflation relative to peer economies, weak government revenue mobilisation and the high proportion of public revenue consumed by debt-servicing costs.
It said the administration’s reform programme was designed to address these structural weaknesses and translate macroeconomic improvements into better living standards.
The government consequently reaffirmed its commitment to sustaining a transparent and market-reflective foreign exchange regime, fully implementing the new tax laws, improving spending efficiency and budget execution, and strengthening debt management.
Other priorities include accelerating economic diversification, expanding non-oil growth, improving food security, creating decent jobs, investing in human development and supporting small businesses.
The ministry noted that Fitch had identified sustained disinflation, continued implementation of reforms, stronger external reserves and improved non-oil revenue mobilisation as factors that could support further positive rating action.
It said the government would continue to pursue these priorities to consolidate macroeconomic stability and ensure that the benefits of economic reforms translated into shared prosperity for Nigerians.
